New Fantasy Guru Takes Fantasy Football World by Storm
John Scheller’s Fantasy Forecast: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
What’s up everybody? As we approach Week 3 in the 2009 Fantasy Football season, this is our first column of the season. I’ll start with a basic rundown of what this weekly piece will entail.
• The design of this article is to give fantasy owners more information. I will list players who might be good options this week, as well as ones who might not be.
• Allow for more interaction between you readers and myself via my twitter account @Schelldawg or schelldawg@airxxi.com (Yes, like the operator of this site, I am a Browns fan).
• I will also provide feedback on my picks in previous weeks.
So let’s get started! First, here are some players I like for this week. Keep in mind that players mentioned here will not be must-starts. You won’t see Adrian Peterson or Drew Brees in this section.
The Good:
Quarterbacks:
Jason Campbell (@ Detroit): I know he’s not the sexiest in terms of a fantasy quarterback, but he is playing Detroit. He’s coming off a week in which he was 23-35 for 242 yards. It should be noted that he did play less than stellar Ram defense, but Detroit is arguably worse defensively. Although he failed to throw any touchdowns against St. Louis, he could be a possible fill-in at QB for owners whose current quarterbacks are injured or facing tough matchups.
Joe Flacco (Cleveland): Flacco has thrown 5 touchdown passes in his first two games this year, and now he gets the porous Cleveland defense at home. The only red flag that makes Flacco not a must start this week is that the Browns are horrible against both the run and the pass. So Willis McGahee and Ray Rice could easily put Cleveland away early, which could lead to Flacco not getting many passing attempts.
David Garrard (@ Houston): Garrard looked good last week against Arizona. Houston’s defense looked equally bad last week against Tennessee. He threw for 282 yards and 2 touchdowns last week. Garrrard’s question marks coming into this week are his turnovers. If he can limit his turnovers, he could have a solid fantasy day.
Running Backs:

Felix Jones and Tashard Choice (Carolina): Both of these backs have a few things going for them. First, Marion Barber’s hurt quad will keep him out for 1-2 weeks. Second, Carolina’s run defense is less than stellar. Third, this game is at home. Having been at the home opener last week, Jerry Jones and the Cowboys faithful desperately don’t want to start 0-2 in their new stadium. If you own Felix Jones, he’s a great option for that second RB spot. Choice ran hard against the Giants, and should see an increase in carries as long as Barber is out. He’s worth a flex look and a possible start this week.
Ryan Grant (@ St. Louis): Odds are if you own Grant, you’ve probably been starting him anyway. Clinton Portis had 19 carries for 79 yards last week against the Rams defense. While Grant only had 14 carries for 46 yards against Cincinnati last week, he did find the end zone. That makes 2 touchdowns in 2 games for Grant so far. If he can get 80 yards and a score, he should be a nice play this week.
Tim Hightower (Indianapolis): Hightower is poised for a big week after Indianapolis just gave up 239 yards last night to the Dolphins. Hightower rushed for 72 yards on 15 carries and found pay dirt once against Jacksonville. Also, Chris “Beanie” Wells fumbled twice on Sunday. Hightower has looked much better in the early part of this season. Look for this trend to continue against the Colts.
Wide Receivers:

Steve Smith and Mario Mannigham (@ Tampa Bay): Smith had 10 catches for 134 yards on Sunday, and had the Cowboys secondary reeling. He also caught a touchdown pass where he put one heck of a double move on corner Orlando Scandrick. Mannigham had 10 catches for 150 yards and also scored a touchdown. Look for both of these Giants receivers to continue their recent success against the Buccaneers.
Jerricho Cotchery (Tennessee): Here’s a fun fact: Tennessee gave up 357 passing yards and 4 passing touchdowns last week. In his first two weeks with rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez, Cotchery has caught a total of 10 balls for 177 yards. While I seriously doubt this game is the 34-31 shootout that the Texans-Titans game was, Cotchery should still be a good play.
Percy Harvin (San Francisco): Harvin has impressed these first two weeks, and last week had 5 catches for 41 yards and a touchdown. Favre seems to be looking his way a lot when the Vikings do throw, and like most teams, the Niners will have their hands full with trying to contain AP.
Tight Ends:
Since tight end is a super-deep position this year, I’m only going to give one player who could have a nice fantasy week.
Jeremy Shockey (@ Buffalo): Shockey got his targets last week, although he only had 4 catches for 49 yards. But I like his matchup here for two reasons. First, he plays with a quarterback named Drew Brees. You may have heard of him. Second, he plays a Buffalo team that gave up 2 long touchdowns late in the game against the Patriots Week 1. Last week, the Bills defense allowed Kellen Winslow 7 catches for 90 yards and a score. The risk with Shockey, as with any Saints player, is how much Brees spreads the ball around. Yet if the pattern from the past two weeks continues, tight ends playing against the Bills have had success. Enough said.
Now for players I don’t particularly like. Just because a player is in this section doesn’t necessarily mean that they shouldn’t be owned, it just means they don’t have the most favorable matchup for week 3.
The Bad:
Carson Palmer (Pittsburgh): Palmer looked really good last week against Green Bay. But let’s not forget he missed most of last season. That being said, as good as Green Bay’s defense looked against the Bears in Week 1, Pittsburgh will be tough to beat coming off of a loss.
Thomas Jones (Tennessee): The Titans run defense is good. Like really good. Not to say that Jones couldn’t find the end zone, but there are more favorable matchups out there.
Braylon Edwards (@ Baltimore): Had to throw one of my Brownies in this inaugural column. The Ravens will blitz Quinn a lot. Yet Edwards had 6 catches for 92 yards last week. Quinn will be checking down a lot to tight ends and running backs, and Edward’s value decreases when he doesn’t get many opportunities to catch the deep balls.
Willie Parker (@Cincinnati): 5 fantasy points in 2 games isn’t quite what Fast Willy’s owners had in mind when they drafted him. I just don’t know about the Steeler’s running back situation right now and would hold off on starting him until he shows he has some fantasy value.
Cedric Benson (Pittsburgh): Let me be clear here: I like Cedric Benson. He is running incredibly well, and looks like a big steal early on this year. I just don’t like starting any running back against the Steelers defense. They’re coming off of a loss and will be taking it out on the Bengals.
This section is for 2 players who can still have good weeks but aren’t owned in a lot of leagues. They are high-risk/high-reward type players. They can get double digit fantasy points or earn less than 5.
The Ugly:
Brandon Stokley (@ Oakland): While there was no last-second-miracle-tipped-touchdown for Stokley on Sunday, he did have 5 catches for 70 yards. While these numbers don’t blow you away by any means, he did lead Denver’s receivers in catches. A red flag with Stokley is that Orton has been known to spread the ball around. Also, we are only 2 weeks into the season, so the jury may still be out. But I do think that Orton continues to look his way this week against the Raiders.
Donald Brown (@ Arizona): He only had 4 carries for 26 yards last week, but was on the field a lot late in the game against Miami. Addai is definitely the Colts main back, but if Brown gets the goaline work he could be a play in deeper fantasy leagues.
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Scheller’s Week 3 Quick Picks
Quick introduction for our readers out there. These picks will not be based on Vegas point spreads, odds, or anything else regarding betting. These will simply be picks as to who will win the game. See, I told you it would be quick. Now onto the picks.
Washington at Detroit: I expect this game to be fairly close. Although they’re 0-2, Detroit has looked a lot better than they did last year. The Lions defensively should be able to contain an average Washington offense that couldn’t find the end zone last week against St. Louis. However, I’m still picking the Redskins to win this one. Washington’s defense should be able to confuse Stafford and force him to make some throws into coverage. I expect Washington to capitalize on some turnovers and come out of Detroit with a victory. Washington 24, Detroit 20.
Green Bay at St. Louis: Steven Jackson is really good. Unfortunately for him, neither the Rams defense or their passing attack scares anyone at this point. Look for Green Bay to put 8 in the box most of the game and force them to beat them without handing off to Jackson. The Packers offense should have their way with the Rams defense, and win by double digits. Green Bay 31, St. Louis 17.
San Francisco at Minnesota: Upset Alert! I like San Francisco here even on the road. Both of these teams have good defenses, and both also have good running backs. Yet something’s gotta give. While Adrian Peterson is a stud, he’s still human. Look for Singletary to focus his team on stopping the run and forcing Favre to throw. Favre is only averaging a little over 5 yards per completion. I like the 49ers in a low scoring game. San Francisco 13, Minnesota 10.
Atlanta at New England: This should be a great game, and it’s a tough one to predict. Atlanta has looked good for the most part this season, but I don’t like how they gave up 308 passing yards to the Panthers last weekend. As bad as New England looked against the Jets, I’m not ready to declare their offense average just yet. Patriots should escape at home with a close win. New England 27, Atlanta 23.
Tennessee at New York Jets: The Titans are a playoff caliber team on paper. The Titans are 0-2 and they have to travel to New York to play one of the hottest teams in the league. I like the Jets at home here for a few reasons. First, you can throw against Tennessee, as Pittsburgh and Houston have shown us. That is good news for any rookie quarterback, especially one playing as well as Mark Sanchez. Second, the defense of the Jets has been great They’ve only given up 16 points so far this season. New York Jets 23, Tennessee 13.
Kansas City at Philadelphia: The Eagles may be without McNabb for the second straight week, but it shouldn’t matter. Philadelphia’s defense is better than they showed last week against New Orleans, and they will show it. Plus Kansas City’s defense is bad, especially against the run. Look for Westbrook to have a big day as the Eagles cruise at home. Philadelphia 24, Kansas City 10
New York Giants at Tampa Bay: The Giants offense looked almost unstoppable against Dallas on Sunday night. The Buccaneers defense doesn’t look like they can stop anybody so far. The Giants should be able to put up a lot of points early and put this one away. New York Giants 34, Tampa Bay 14.
Cleveland at Baltimore: Oh how I wish the Browns could get their first win of the season in Baltimore against a division rival. Sadly, the Browns will have to wait for their first win as it’s probably not going to happen this week. The Ravens still have one of the top defenses in the league, and a potent rushing attack with Willis McGahee and Ray Rice. Also, the Browns have scored one offensive touchdown in two games, and had trouble scoring against Denver. Baltimore 31, Cleveland 13 (Note: I’m giving the Browns 13 as hoping that Cribbs can run a kick back).
Jacksonville at Houston: Not sure what to make of Houston just yet. As good as they looked offensively last week, they looked equally as bad in Week 1. Houston’s defense is still atrocious, though. On the other side, Jacksonville is coming off a loss to Arizona where they did not look good defensively. All signs point to this one being a shootout, and Schaub has better offensive weapons than Garrard does. Houston 31, Jacksonville 21.
New Orleans at Buffalo: Ok I’m doing it. You’ll call me crazy, but I’m picking the Bills at home. I know what you’re thinking…Drew Brees! Marques Colston! It’s true that the Saints are loaded with offensive weapons, just as they were last year. However, while they did improve their defense in the offseason, they still aren’t good enough to slow down the Bills. Three main reasons why I’m picking this upset: 1) The Saints don’t have much of a rushing attack, allowing Buffalo to focus almost exclusively on the pass. 2) Fred Jackson has looked really good these first two weeks, and I look for that trend to continue. 3) The Saints had virtually the same roster last year (I know they missed Colston for part of the year due to injury), and they finished 7-9. The Bills need to get ahead early and then grind the clock to keep the Saints offense on the sideline. While I think the Saints are better overall this year, I look for the Bills to hand them their first loss. Buffalo 24, New Orleans 21.
Chicago at Seattle: Matt Hasselbeck injured his ribs in last weeks game. If Seneca Wallace has to start against a defense that held the Steelers to just 14 points last week, this one could be over quickly. The Bears defense was bottom 5 in the league in terms of passing yards allowed last year. I’m going to assume Hasselbeck sits this one out and Wallace is under center on Sunday. Plus, the Seahawks defense is nothing to write home about. Chicago 23, Seattle 10.
Miami at San Diego: Poor, poor Miami. That would be tough to have the ball for three-fourths of the game and lose. They rushed for 239 yards and lost to Peyton Manning and the Colts. San Diego is coming off of a tough loss to Baltimore in which their defense gave up 31 points. For what was supposed to be a possible sleeper defense this year, they sure didn’t show it last week. I have to go with the Chargers at home. Look for them to put eight men in the box and force Pennington to take shots down the field, which he isn’t known for doing. San Diego 26, Miami 21.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: The Steelers probably should be 2-0, but Jeff Reed missing two field goals have them sitting at 1-1. From the Bengals point of view, they could easily be 2-0 if not for the tipped pass that Stokley caught that beat them in Week 1. I expect this game to be fairly close, as Cincinnati’s defense has improved. Pittsburgh hasn’t been able to run the ball very effectively in the early part of this season, which definitely doesn’t help them in this matchup. Bengal fans should also be excited about how well Carson Palmer looked last week against a pretty good Green Bay defense. As much as it pains me to do it, I’m taking the Steelers here. Even without Polamalu, there defense is still really good and should give the Bengal’s offense fits this weekend. However, being a Browns fan, this is one pick I hope I’m wrong on. Pittsburgh 24, Cincinnati 17.
Denver at Oakland: Denver begins the Josh McDaniel’s era 2-0, after beating Cincinnati and Cleveland. They haven’t looked incredible, but they have looked solid and haven’t beaten themselves. Plus, they’ve looked better defensively this year early on. Oakland is a run first team and will try and get McFadden the ball early and often. The more times Russell has to throw, the better Denver’s chances are. If Denver can get ahead early and force the Raiders to throw, it will spell success for them on the road. Denver 17, Oakland 9.
Indianapolis at Arizona: This should be a fun game to watch, with two high-powered passing offenses going at it. That being said, the Colts defense only gave up 6 passing touchdowns all of last year. The Cardinals are obviously a pass first team. Something’s gotta give here. Indianapolis just gave up 239 yards rushing to Miami. Arizona looked better last week against the Jaguars. I like the Cardinals at home in a higher scoring game largely due to Tim Hightower. He has looked great running and catching the ball out of the backfield so far this year. Plus the Cardinals are at home. Arizona 30, Indianapolis 24.
Carolina at Dallas: Dallas looked good offensively Sunday night against the Giants. Barber’s injury is cause for some concern, but fortunately the Cowboys have some depth at the running back position. With Felix Jones and Tashard Choice, Dallas should still be able to run the ball. Carolina’s offense looked much better last week than in Week 1. They were able to throw for over 300 yards passing against a solid Atlanta defense. Both of these secondaries have been shaky to start the season. Also, the Cowboys do not want to start their run at their new stadium by opening 0-2 at home. I like Dallas in a good, close game. Dallas 28, Carolina 24.
That’s it for this week. Feel free to submit your specific questions via Twitter to @Schelldawg or schelldawg@airxxi.com. And for you fellow Browns fans out there, don’t give up hope just yet. We aren’t good, but hopefully there’s a light at the end of the tunnel.

September 22nd, 2009 at 10:47 pm
This is awesome, I look forward to the weekly updates.
September 22nd, 2009 at 10:50 pm
John Scheller strikes again…Great work from one of the fantasy world’s most underrated writers. Enjoy him while he’s hot, cause soon that woman of his won’t even let him do this. Damn shame.
September 23rd, 2009 at 9:08 pm
if you correctly predict a single game correctly in week 3, winner and score, i will put you on my payroll at $10 an article for the rest of the season. if not, you will do t for free for the rest of the season lol.
September 23rd, 2009 at 10:15 pm
Good stuff. And if there is a score right that is going to be awesome.
September 23rd, 2009 at 10:53 pm
scheller, youve got a lot of random facts going on here, and im impressed.. “the Colts defense only gave up 6 passing touchdowns all of last year.”
I really hope you had to look that up.. if not, touche